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Network Wars Heat Up

The forecast for this season is a neck-and-neck race
for household viewers

Which network will clean up in bitter ratings battles this fall remains to be seen

Winning the household viewership crown may not be as easy this fall as in the past, according to media execs.  But starting this fall, the race to watch will be in primetime, with NBC and CBS running neck and neck for the title throughout the fourth quarter, according to the latest forecast by Magna Global USA's Steve Sternberg.

CBS will have the edge on Monday, Tuesday, Saturday and Sunday nights, but NBC will win Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, Sternberg said.
 

NBC will easily capture the lead among adults 18-49, with ABC, CBS and Fox running a tight race for No. 2.  Fox will nearly keep pace with No. 1 NBC among men 18-49, while CBS will be runner-up to NBC among women in the demo.  In adults 18-34 competition, NBC is expected to come out on top with Fox just behind.

Two key battlegrounds in the NBC-CBS rivalry will be the 10 p.m. hour on Monday and Thursday, said Sternberg, who has expanded his predictions of earlier this summer to include prescriptions for each network.

"I think one matchup that's going to be really interesting is CSI: Miami and Crossing Jordan."  Both shows air Monday at 10 p.m., opposite ABC's Monday Night Football.

CSI: Miami is likely to be more of a dual-audience draw, while Crossing Jordan primarily reaches women, said Sternberg, who speculates that NBC may take some of the heat off Jordan by moving it to Wednesday at 8 p.m., where it would lead into The West Wing.

He named CSI: Miami as one of the more promising new series of the season, along with the WB's Everwood, NBC's American Dreams and CBS's Still Standing and Without a Trace.

The latter show occupies another strategic berth, going up against ER Thursdays at 10 p.m.

"ER is poised to decline even more," said Sternberg, noting that the long-running hospital drama, having shed most of its original cast members, has been struggling in reruns over the summer.

Two new medical dramas, ABC's MDs and CBS's Presidio Med illustrate a peculiarity of the new season: the abandonment of counter-programming.  Both shows air Wednesday at 10 p.m.

The same night offers the only two non-UPN comedies with African-American casts, Fox's Bernie Mac and ABC's My Wife and Kids, facing off at 8 p.m., and two returning reality shows, ABC's The Bachelor and CBS's Amazing Race, going head-to-head at 9 p.m. At the same time, three new action series vie for viewer numbers: Fox's Fastlane, WB's Birds of Prey and UPN's Twilight Zone.

Nearly two-thirds of the season premieres for returning shows will air during the week of Sept. 23, but fewer than half of new shows will kick off that week, with 39 percent premiering earlier and 17 percent premiering later.

Sternberg said he considers that to be a wise scheduling choice on behalf of the networks.

"With the new shows, when you put them on all at once, a lot of them get lost in the shuffle."

Battling Weeklies

Pit two rival weekly mags against one another, step back,
and watch the fur fly

And the winner is ...

Us Weekly, seeking increased celebrity coverage and increased circulation under its new editor, took its battle with media giant People one step further recently.

Us Weekly's weapon is an unflattering cover story on Britney Spears that competes with an interview lost to its rival.

As a result, Us Weekly has ticked off Spears' high-powered press agent, Lisa Kasteler, who called its package "just a rehash of the tabloids, a stupid story."

Us Weekly editor in chief Bonnie Fuller "continues to go lower and lower," she told the Daily News. "Bonnie needs to sell and exploit people who are in the news whether she's writing things that are true or not."

Spears' six-month hiatus from show biz and her split with boyfriend Justin Timberlake prompt Us Weekly to ask in its new issue: "Britney & Justin: Did She Betray Him? Friends now allege that cheating and jealousy drove the dream couple apart - and led to Britney's career 'break.' "

People trumpets its sympathetic Spears exclusive with "My Turn to Talk." The cover text continues: "Meltdown? No way, says the singer, who opens up about her split from Justin, her family's troubles and her gutsy decision to take time off."
 

In their bid for TV exposure, People won the latest round, since its Spears interview was echoed last night on Entertainment Tonight, Access Hollywood and Inside Edition.

People, believed to be the most profitable mag in history, has been a celebrity showcase since its launch by Time Inc. in 1974.

Figures out last week showed its average newsstand sale dipped 2.4% during the first half of this year, compared to early 2001, and its total circulation dropped 2.3%, to 3.6 million.

Us Weekly, co-owned by Wenner Media and Disney, surged 30.1% on newsstands, and its total grew 16%, to just over 1 million. The gains reflected early response to Fuller, a former editor of Cosmopolitan and Glamour who's turned Us Weekly into a photo-heavy roundup of celebrity gossip since she joined in March.

"We know People is looking over their shoulder at our success on newsstands and in the publicity wars," Us spokesman Stu Zakim said, recalling People recently outbid Us for photos of Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck, including one that showed them studying a copy of Us.

People staffers, while privately laughing off Us' claim that it has People on the run, are careful to say nothing publicly about Fuller's mag that might sound as if it really is seen as a threat.

Yesterday, Martha Nelson, People's managing editor since April, said, "People has been copied by everyone - from magazines to TV shows. But we're still so strong because People does it the best."
 

The American Press Institute and
CyberJournalist Join Forces

The goal: to encourage online and multi-platform convergence journalism

 

CyberJournalist.net, a Web site for journalists that focuses on the Internet, media convergence and new technologies, offers tips, news and commentary about online journalism, converged news operations and using the Internet as a reporting tool. The site features a Great Work Gallery of outstanding online journalism; a Weblog Blog that tracks Weblogs' impact on journalism; and the CyberJournalist SuperSearch newsgathering tool.
 
CyberJournalist.net will become a service of The Media Center and incorporated with other information and training services produced by The Media Center for the online and multi-platform convergence news industry.

The Media Center, a unit of the not-for-profit American Press Institute based in Reston, Virginia, produces seminars and custom training and management-development services for online and convergence publishing companies. It also publishes NewsFuture, a Web and e-mail newsletter for senior staffers and executives in the multi-platform news publishing industry.

"CyberJournalist.net is for journalists and journalism educators concerned with producing better digital journalism for a digital audience," said Media Center Director Andrew Nachison. "That's one of the primary objectives of The Media Center, along with helping news companies improve their business planning, operations and strategic focus. Through our publishing and training we want to help journalists and news-industry executives and strategists better understand what they can do to connect with their digital audience. So CyberJournalist.net is a perfect complement to our other publication, NewsFuture, which focuses on the evolution of the news business and publishing strategies."

CyberJournalist.net was founded in 2000 by MSNBC.com technology editor Jonathan Dube, who will continue as CyberJournalist.net's editor-in-chief and publisher. He will maintain CyberJournalist.net as a service of The Media Center, where he also will be a senior editor. Nachison will become editor-at-large of CyberJournalist.net.

"We are at an important crossroads in journalistic history, as the Internet and new technologies reshape our business," Dube said. "I founded CyberJournalist.net to help journalists understand and embrace these changes. With The Media Center's similar mission, our new alliance is an exciting step forward in educating our profession and is great news for the journalism world."

Links to CyberJournalist.net, NewsFuture and details about The Media Center can be found here:

http://www.americanpressinstitute.org/mediacenter

About the American Press Institute

The American Press Institute is an independent, not-for-profit educational center with headquarters in Reston, Virginia. Founded by newspaper publishers in 1946 as the leadership-development and training arm of the news industry, the Institute offers about three dozen weeklong residential seminars annually for professionals in all newspaper departments. A separate curriculum produced by The Media Center at API focuses on Internet publishing, technology and media convergence. In public seminars and private engagements with individual companies, The Media Center assists professionals in developing and implementing strategies, content and processes for the delivery of information across a variety of platforms. Through its Extended Learning Center, API develops tailored learning programs for individual media companies. These programs range from leadership development to skills training.

About CyberJournalist.net

CyberJournalist.net is a resource site for journalists that focuses on the Internet, media convergence and new technologies. The site offers tips, news and commentary about online journalism, converged news operations and using the Internet as a reporting tool. CyberJournalist.net highlights examples of online journalism with the aim of recognizing those who do great work and helping those who don't. The site also explores how technology is affecting journalism, with an emphasis on how the Internet can help all journalists better do their jobs. The site features a Great Work Gallery of outstanding online journalism; a Weblog Blog that tracks Weblogs' impact on journalism; and the CyberJournalist SuperSearch newsgathering tool. CyberJournalist.net has been recommended by the Columbia Journalism Review, Newsbytes and the Radio and Television News Directors Association, and been named a USA TODAY Hot Site. The site was founded by Jonathan Dube in the summer of 2000 and published independently until August 2002, when a publishing alliance was formed with The Media Center at the American Press Institute. Dube continues to run the site as editor-in-chief and publisher.

Series the Hot Thing
This Season

Television tie-ins are going to seem more like movie tie-ins this fall, as publishers respond to what appears to be an ongoing programming trend: the multipart television event. On the heels of HBO's success with the groundbreaking megaseries Band of Brothers and From the Earth to the Moon, other networks are getting in on the act with at least three major events this season: Taken (Sci-Fi Channel) from Steven Spielberg, Masterpiece Theater's remake of The Forsyte Saga (PBS) and a new Peter Jennings/Todd Brewster panorama, In Search of America (ABC). Ranging from six to 10 episodes, these sprawling megaseries may generate significantly greater benefits for their book tie-ins than television generally affords.

With 10 two-hour episodes airing December 1–10, the alien-abduction– themed Taken is an unprecedented marathon, and the biggest of the bunch. "It's hard to remember another television novelization that was at the top of our list, right next to Danielle Steel and John Grisham," said Irwyn Applebaum, president and publisher of the Bantam Dell Publishing Group. The house is announcing a first printing of more than half a million novelizations written by top mystery writer Thomas Cook.

The large print run is warranted, said Applebaum, by the unique combination of the popular subject matter, the scope of the program, the heavy commitment from the Sci-Fi Channel and, of course, Steven Spielberg's involvement. "This is a subject he's dealt with before, in Close Encounters and E.T., and [which has] galvanized audiences," said Applebaum.

For the Bantam Dell group, the bottom line is that a bigger TV budget yields better production values, a larger marketing budget and a heavier advertising push. The program's lengthy run also generates a longer promotional effort. "Normally, TV comes and goes pretty quickly, but this will have a sustained airing," said Applebaum. He also believes the holiday time crunch might push more people to make up for missed episodes by reading the book. A DreamWorks promotional video that features Spielberg explaining his vision helped sell the project to advertisers and booksellers.

A long run is also good news for The Forsyte Saga, Nobel laureate John Galsworthy's portrait of Victorian London, which Masterpiece Theatre is airing in three multipart segments. The first two parts will air on consecutive Sundays in October and November, while the final segments will run next spring. Mark Gompertz, executive v-p and publisher of Simon & Schuster Trade Paperbacks, said the extended airplay is key to big tie-in sales: "It's generally very hard to get out large numbers when it's a one-night event. But a long rollout means that bookstores will keep the book front and center."

Heir to a very successful 1969 adaptation, the new version is already a smash in the U.K. "As with Brideshead Revisited or The Jewel in the Crown, you had restaurants in England that were empty during the showing," said Gompertz. "This could be a communal event that people want to watch 'live' rather than tape." The initial print run was 50,000 before Scribner got wind of the British reaction; Gompertz said the number is likely to increase dramatically. Gompertz also credits the Masterpiece Theatre book club with goosing sales (Book News, July 8).

Riding the success of The Century, Peter Jennings and Todd Brewster return with In Search of America, a six-part megaseries that examines how 21st-century America reflects the vision and ideals this country was founded upon 225 years ago. Some 725,000 hardcovers will arrive with the series in September, with displays scheduled in stores through the holidays as the authors continue their promotional tour.

Current-affairs programming takes a more traditional route with a two-part production by Norman Mailer and Lawrence Schiller, who have teamed on several compelling true-crime stories since 1972, including the acclaimed TV movie The Executioner's Song. This time, the writers had to invent a fair amount of dialogue and private thoughts for their subject, FBI mole Robert Hanssen, whose plea-bargain barred press contact. While Master Spy (both the book and the miniseries) doesn't reveal much new factual information, it may be as close as we'll ever get to the mind of the this spy. Schiller's novelization from HarperCollins is based on the teleplay he co-wrote with Mailer.

As for the lifestyles of the well-off, formerly notorious and ineluctably middle-aged, rocker Ozzy Osbourne and wrestler Hulk Hogan offer tie-ins to their respective hit series. Pocket/MTV Books is planning a 500,000-copy first printing for an untitled book by the Osbourne family—plus a 175,000 printing for a book on the family's pets. The WWE wrestling phenomenon will debut in hardcover with Hollywood Hulk Hogan (Pocket/WWE), which also has a planned 500,000 first printing.

If those shows aren't "real" enough, ABC's new interactive series Push Nevada invites the audience to solve the mystery at the heart of the show for $1 million, using clues planted throughout the fall run. Hyperion will publish a trade paperback dossier with an announced 150,000 first printing that "ties into what the audience is seeing on the show and allows them to examine the clues in more detail," said Hyperion v-p and publisher Ellen Archer.
 

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